Understanding Malaysia: GE14 and beyond

It has been a month since the end of the election season in Singapore. As some leap off the bandwagon as fast as they had hopped onto it, others may ask: “what’s next in the world?” Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, the show is still on for democratic processes, with Sri Lanka concluding its parliamentary elections just a few days back. While most may be looking at the US Presidential Elections as the next big thing in the political realm, one actually need not look far to find a country with an exciting prelude to a possible snap election – Malaysia.

Backgound: GE14

2018 was a consequential year for Malaysia. Its 14th General Election in May that year saw its ruling coalition of 61 years (including Barisan Nasional’s years as its predecessor: the Alliance Party) falling from power. Needless to say, BN had to surrender its rights to govern to the then-new coalition Pakatan Harapan (PH) after losing the majority vote.

Scenes from GE14 and Port Dickson's by-election which brought Anwar Ibrahim back into the Dewan Rakyat

This was truly significant in the history of Malaysia as it saw the ousting of the coalition that was formed on the basis of representing each and every Malaysian. Upon its registration in 1973, BN consisted of 9 parties including UMNO (United Malays National Organisation), MCA (Malaysian Chinese Association), MIC (Malaysian Indian Congress) and various parties representing the indigenous population of East Malaysia. Clearly, its dramatic loss in the election meant that it had failed in this aspect - representing Malaysians.

While some may also attribute BN’s fall from grace in 2018 largely a result of Najib’s involvement in the 1MDB corruption scandal, one cannot deny the fact that component parties within the coalition had begun to lose votes and support from their constituents.

GE12 in 2008 was a reality check for Barisan Nasional. Under Abdullah Badawi’s lead, BN went on to lose its claim to a supermajority in the parliament and 5 states in the State elections. While Abdullah eventually resigned and handed over power to Najib Razak, the damage had been done and BN’s performance in the following elections failed to restore BN’s dominance to its former glory.

Notably, MCA’s seats dropped from 31 in GE11 (2004) to only 7 in GE13 (2013) whereas its main rival, the Democratic Action Party’s (DAP) seats went up from 12 in GE11 to 38 in GE13. Meanwhile, Parti Keadilan Rakyat’s (PKR), seats went up from 1 in GE11 to 31 in GE12 and subsequently 30 in GE13, and it is definitely worth noting that Anwar Ibrahim had a great part to play in the sudden spike in support for PKR.

To sum up, by 2018, the cost of living in Malaysia remained high while income growth had stagnated. Despite this, government subsidies had been gradually cut while the GST was introduced in 2014 and perhaps seen as a hypocritical move by some, the government continued to spend lavishly on mega projects such as the High-Speed Rail between Singapore and Malaysia and the East Coast Rail Link. Coupled with the 1MDB corruption scandal which perpetually tarnished the support BN had worked so hard to win back, BN’s eventual lost in GE14, while not inevitable, should not have been overwhelmingly surprising.

"We have no eternal allies, and we have no perpetual enemies. Our interests are eternal and perpetual, and those interests it is our duty to follow."- Henry John Temple, 3rd Viscount Palmerston, British PM (1855-1858, 1859-1865)

Fractures in Pakatan Harapan

Against all odds, the alliance managed to come together and won the general election. Yet, this marriage of convenience was flawed from the beginning as the parties came together mainly to convict Najib for his involvement in the corruption case. Within weeks of the alliance’s takeover of the government, it became evident that the alliance had troubles creating a united voice as disagreements arose amidst an overhaul of the previous administration’s policies.

Disunity in the alliance was apparent to Malaysians as public spats had occurred between the coalition members including Bersatu's Syed Saddiq's dispute with DAP over the violence at a Hindu temple in Selangor and Tun Dr Mahathir's disagreements with various party leaders from the other 3 main component parties of the alliance: DAP, PKR and Amanah.

Perhaps, this should not have been surprising at all as, after all, parties in this alliance share vastly different ideologies. DAP, a Chinese-dominated party, and PKR, a multi-racial party, seek to instill a semblance of racial equality in Malaysia while Bersatu, a Bumiputera-dominated party, seeks to protect and further the dominance and rights of the indigenous population. As a result, since taking power, the alliance's popularity had dropped significantly as the racial minority felt alienated and betrayed by Mahathir's pandering to the Malays while the Malays continued to feel threatened by the presence of non-Malays, more specifically DAP leaders, in influential political positions.

In addition, many have pointed PH's loss of support as a result of its economic policies that had benefited only the affluent and stagnated growth for those living in rural areas. This triple whammy against the alliance pushed the alliance towards certain failure as throughout its term since GE14, PH had lost 5 out of 10 state and parliamentary by-elections.

A political crisis in the making

Yet, what led to the political upheaval and fall of the Pakatan Harapan government was not the loss of support from its people but instead, infighting and disagreements over who should be the next leader of Malaysia. What had begun as a meeting to push Tun Dr Mahathir for a departure date to allow for Anwar Ibrahim's ascension to the role of PM eventually led to the political turmoil seen in late February 2020.

It is important to note that despite Anwar's popularity, many still sought ways to deny the possibility of him becoming the next PM. One such figure is Azmin Ali, a party leader in PKR who was once considered as Anwar's protege. Their relations soured since the Kajang move in 2014 which saw Azmin Ali being appointed as the Chief Minister for Selangor despite the party's original plan of pushing Wan Azizah (Anwar's wife) for the role. This led to a split within PKR, between those supporting Anwar and Wan Azizah against those in support of Azmin Ali. The latter's eventual appointment as the Minister for Economic Affairs under Mahathir's charge pushed Azmin Ali to be seen as a possible replacement for Anwar which further soured the relationship between the 2 party leaders.

Scenes from the political turmoil in Feb 2020

A point to note is that unlike Singapore, Malaysia does not have an anti-hopping law. Hence, even after elections, elected MPs can defect to other parties should they choose to and these defections are not rare occurrences in Malaysia.

Hence, in late February, Azmin Ali alongside party leaders from Bersatu (Muhyiddin Yassin), UMNO (Ahmad Zahid), PAS (Hadi Awang), Gabungan Parti Sarawak (Abang Johari Openg) and Warisan (Shafie Apdal) sought an audience from the Yang di-Pertuan Agong. It was believed that they had done so to brief the King on the political developments. This was followed by Mahathir's resignation and though he still had sufficient support to remain as the PM, everything changed on 28 February.

On that fateful day, Bersatu MPs' and Azmin Ali's faction made a decision to support Muhyiddin to be the next PM, thus dooming any hopes of Mahathir returning to the appointment as PM. Together with MPs from UMNO, PAS, MCA and MIC, Muhyiddin had seemingly garnered enough support under a new alliance - Perikatan Nasional - while Mahathir's lack of definite support marked his fall from power. This eventually culminated in the Yang di-Pertuan Agong's decision to appoint Muhyiddin as the 8th PM of Malaysia.

A lack of clear majority and a possible snap election

Despite this turmoil to install a new PM, a snap election seems imminent to some including UMNO and PKR. Weeks prior, PM Muhyiddin had succeeded in unseating then-Speaker of the Dewan Rakyat Mohamad Ariff Md Yusof and replacing him with Azhar Azizan Harun with 111 to 109 votes. While he might have achieved a majority, thereby putting down Mahathir claims prior that he had 115 MPs in support of him, a margin of 2 votes with 2 absentees (thus denying a simple majority in a parliament of 222 seats) seems to be insufficient in proving Muhyiddin's control over his parliament.

Mahathir's announcement of a new political party

While one cannot be sure if a snap election will definitely be called, eyes are now turned towards Muhyiddin's administration and their ability to pass policies with a weak mandate. Though what is certain is the uncertainty masking the road ahead for the politics in Malaysia as one has to recognise that Muhyiddin is after all no longer a UMNO member. Coupled with Mahathir's recent decision to form a new political party and Anwar's determination to continue the work towards PMship, one cannot only expect GE15 to be an exciting one.

"We have set up our elections machinery going to the states. And we should be prepared."- Anwar Ibrahim

(Cover photo by Muhammad Faiz Zulkeflee)

By Eugene Goh